Every Single Goddamn Thing You Need To Know With College Hoops Conference Tournaments Starting Today

Folks, it’s with great pleasure I tell you that conference tournaments begin today. You may be shocked but this is my favorite time of the year. The limited sleep. The roughly 100 games on per day for hours on end. Now, we really pick up steam next week, but this week we have mid-majors. In just 5 days we’ll know the first team in the NCAA Tournament. So with that in mind let’s get into every last goddamn thing you need to know about the next couple of weeks.

Schedule

One-Bid Leagues: 

This is where it gets interesting this year. For the first time in quite some time there are more mid-majors that are true at-large teams than I can remember. I’m talking true mid-majors too not MWC, MVC, etc teams. I mean the fact that Wofford, Lipscomb, Belmont, Murray State and even someone like Furman is still alive for an at-large. So with that in mind these are the one-bid leagues that no matter what happens will only have 1 team in with my guesses for who wins each conference:
America East (Vermont)
Big Sky (Northern Colorado)
Big South (Campbell)
Big West (UC-Irvine)
CAA (Hofstra)
Conference USA(Old Dominion)
Horizon (NKU)
Ivy (Yale)
MAAC (Siena)
MEAC (Norfolk State)
Missouri Valley (Southern Illinois)
Northeast (St. Francis (PA))
Patriot (Lehigh)
Southland (Sam Houston State)
Summit (South Dakota State)
Sun Belt (Georgia State)
SWAC (Prairie View)
WAC (Grand Canyon)

Bid Stealers

Now, this is where it gets interesting. I mentioned those teams above that could be potential bid stealers. But, then you have to throw in conferences like the MWC, A-10, SoCon and MAC as some that could steal a bid. This is where the whole bubble being weak thing really comes into play. We could see the bubble shrink. It happens every year. We hear about how the bubble is weak, but then bids get stolen and those bubble teams disappear into teams that we thought were at-large teams. If San Diego State wins the MWC that means Nevada is now an at-large team taking away a bid from someone like, say, Butler. These are the conferences that could see a stolen bid. Obviously we’re still waiting to see matchups, etc, so I’ll list who you want to cheer for if you’re a team on the bubble:
A-Sun (Lipscomb)
A-10 (VCU)
MAC (Buffalo)
MWC (Nevada)
OVC (Belmont/Murray State)
Pac-12 (Washington)
SoCon (Wofford)
WCC (Gonzaga)

Multiple Bid Leagues
I’ll go more in depth on the multiple bid leagues next week when we know the brackets and what not. That’s not to say someone can’t steal a bid from one of these leagues. I mean we saw Georgia do that in the SEC Tournament back in 2008. There is a bubble team like a Butler, Creighton or Xavier that can win the Big East. We can see someone like Penn State get hot and win the Big 10. There are a ton of things like that that can happen because .. THIS IS MARCH. Instead we’ll take a look at locks/comfortably in/bubble teams/out:

American
Locks: Houston, Cincinnati
Comfortably In: None
Bubble: UCF, Temple
Out: Memphis, Wichita State, Tulsa, South Florida, UConn, SMU, ECU, Tulane
Thoughts: UCF picked up that huge win at Houston and they are on the right side of the bubble. However, they still have to play Cincinnati and Temple to end the season. If they lose both of those games they are firmly on the bubble with likely some work to do in the AAC Tournament to feel comfortable. That’s probably the only thing people will argue about with this list. The nonconference isn’t exactly great for UCF. They have a home loss to Florida Atlantic, but have the home win over Alabama. Outside of that they beat a bunch of sub-150 teams and an away loss to Missouri isn’t going to kill you. 

ACC
Locks: Duke, Virginia, UNC, Virginia Tech, Florida State
Comfortably In: Syracuse, Louisville
Bubble: NC State, Clemson
Out: Miami, Wake Forest, Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Pitt
Thoughts: Pretty cut and dry in the ACC. Duke, Virginia and UNC are all fighting for No. 1 seeds. I expect Virginia Tech and Florida State to be top-5/6 seeds. Then Syracuse and Louisville are somewhere in that 8/9 range. NC State is going to be fascinating to me. They had a horrendous nonconference schedule – playing a bunch of terrible teams and Auburn at home. Granted, they won them, but we’ll see how the committee rewards/punishes that. They end the season with Georgia Tech and Boston College. Two wins there gives them 10 in the ACC and should feel okay. Clemson is a weird team too. They don’t really have a bad loss (at Miami isn’t going to kill you). But they don’t have that win they can point to as a great win. Home to Virginia Tech is nice, but probably not enough to feel great. They end with Notre Dame and Syracuse. They have to win both of those.

Big East
Locks: Villanova, Marquette
Comfortably In: No one
Bubble: Xavier, Georgetown, Butler, Creighton, St. John’s, Seton Hall
Out: Providence, DePaul
Thoughts: I feel confident in saying the Big East will get those two bids. However, they could also get 8 bids. Or 3 or 4. It’s by far the most fascinating conference tournament we’ll see. It’s wide open. We saw St. John’s sweep Marquette but get swept by DePaul. We’ve seen Xavier turn a corner the last month. Georgetown can win games. Marquette can still end up as a top-4 seed and Nova has a path to potentially getting there too if they win out.

Big 12
Locks: Kansas State, Kansas, Texas Tech
Comfortably In: Iowa State, Baylor
Bubble: Texas, Oklahoma, TCU
Out: West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Thoughts: Well the streak may be coming to an end but Kansas is still projected as a top-4 seed, so college basketball still seems right. Texas is one of the two most fascinating resumes to look at along with Indiana. Texas has wins over UNC and Purdue in the nonconference with home losses to Radford and Providence. If they can split with Texas Tech and TCU they finish .500 in conference play, which goods on paper, even with the 17-14 record. Oklahoma could get to the comfortably in section here with a couple of wins to end the season. They are currently projected as a 9 seed, but they are on the back end of that.

Big 10
Locks: Purdue, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Wisconsin
Comfortably In: Iowa
Bubble: Ohio State, Indiana, Minnesota
Out: Illinois, Nebraska, Penn State, Northwestern, Rutgers
Thoughts: Not a whole lot going on in the Big 10. The top-5 teams are battling for a top-4 seed. Iowa is trying to stay ahead of the 8/9 seed. But, then there’s Indiana. Same thing with Texas. The win/loss record is weird, as they are close to .500. But, they have a sweep of Michigan State. They beat Marquette, Louisville and Butler. They end with Illinois and Rutgers. Two wins gets them to 17-14 overall and 8-12 in conference play. I actually think that’s enough to get them on the right side of the bubble. That’s a team that most eyes should be on though.

SEC
Locks: Tennessee, Kentucky, LSU
Comfortably In: Mississippi State, Auburn
Bubble: Ole Miss, Florida, Alabama
Out: Vanderbilt, Georgia, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, South Carolina
Thoughts: I think another conference that’s fairly cut and dry is the SEC. Kentucky and Tennessee are fighting for a No. 1 seed. LSU is fighting for a No. 2 seed. Mississippi State and Auburn can be top-6 seeds. Ole Miss is on the bubble, but clearly on the right side. Florida and Alabama are really the only two teams that are squarely on the bubble. Florida has a chance for that quality win going to Rupp Arena on Saturday. A win there and they are on the right side. Alabama ends with Auburn and Arkansas. Beating Auburn will help them as they try to get out of Dayton.